Let me be as straight forward and direct as I can: The ONLY reason these outlooks are done is to teach folks the “why behind the what”. Throughout my entire career I’ve always made it a point to teach in the process of forecasting so it’s easier to understand the things that I and my team talk about. Education is important! Oh, and tradition! Yeah. Tradition is also important LOL. I’ve been doing my Winter Outlook on November 1st since 2010.
Do I put any sort of serious stock in long-range forecasts? A little. But as we’ve seen time and time and time again, Mother Nature will do as she pleases. We can look at various upper level air and sea surface temp patterns and get a good *idea* of what’s likely as a result of all those things working together, but all it takes is ONE thing to not “click” or one of those patterns to be a bit more amplified and the whole thing gets thrown off kilter.
So what will go over in this blog are a few things:
- Overall Pattern
- Expected temperatures and precip/snow
- What can go wrong with the forecast
For those of you who don’t have long attention spans (actually, me. I swear I’ve got undiagnosed ADHD so sometimes I just want just the details I need to know quickly) here’s the “Soccer Mom w/5 Kids Summary” for ya:
- I expect December to start off cold. After a 10-14 day stretch of mild air across the eastern third of the country that *may* last into Thanksgiving, things likely take a turn to start Meteorological Winter (Dec 1) give or take a few days in either direction.
- As a whole I don’t expect the ENTIRE Winter to be overly cold but a couple stretched of the polar vortex are possible which will lead to periods of cold. We likely remain around average, maybe slightly above for a chunk of the season.
- I see the Winter being VERY active with 2-3 big nor’easters and several smaller clipper systems.
- This does NOT mean that they will be snowy nor’easters…TRACK determines everything, obviously.
- We likely go from an active start in December to a quick January thaw, then an active mid-January. Winter re-loads for mid Feb with more storm chances.
- I like the idea of *average* to slightly above an average snowfall for the Philly Metro area to the Shore.
THE PATTERN
I’m sure you’ve heard of La Nina and El Nino, we typcially oscillate between the two every year or every couple years. Every now and then we end up in what I call a “La Nada” or a NEUTRAL phase of the Enso cycle. What exactly is that?
ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is driven by the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere near the equator. Under normal or neutral conditions, trade winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, pushing warm surface water toward Indonesia and Australia. This causes cooler water to rise up near the coast of South America, a process called upwelling. The warm water in the west leads to rising air and thunderstorms, while cooler water in the east promotes sinking air and dry conditions.
The strength and position of this warm and cool water distribution, along with related atmospheric patterns, fluctuate over time. These fluctuations form the basis of the ENSO cycle.
This year we’ve got a La Nina. La Niña is the cool phase of the ENSO cycle. It is essentially the opposite of El Niño. During La Niña, the trade winds strengthen, pushing warm surface water even farther west and enhancing upwelling of cold water in the eastern Pacific.
KEY FEATURES OF LA NINA:
- Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.
- Stronger-than-normal trade winds and enhanced upwelling near South America.
- A more pronounced Walker Circulation, with stronger rising motion over the western Pacific and sinking motion in the east.
GLOBAL IMPACTS:
- Wetter conditions in Indonesia, Australia, and parts of Southeast Asia.
- Drier conditions in the southwestern United States and parts of South America.
- Cooler global average temperatures due to the ocean absorbing more heat.
IMPACT ON THE NORTHEAST & MID-ATLANTIC:
When a La Niña pattern develops in the Pacific Ocean, it triggers a chain reaction across the global atmosphere that strongly influences weather in North America. For the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, the effects are not as direct or uniform as in other regions like the Pacific Northwest or the southern United States, but the pattern still shapes temperature trends, storm tracks, snowfall potential, and overall winter character in meaningful ways.
Below is a breakdown of the main impacts.
1. Jet Stream and Storm Track Shifts
La Niña winters feature a stronger, more northward-displaced Pacific jet stream. This causes storms to frequently track across the northern tier of the U.S., often diving southeast out of the Great Lakes or Midwest before curving up the East Coast.
For the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, this usually means:
- More clipper systems and fast-moving cold fronts.
- Fewer Gulf-origin systems that tap deep subtropical moisture.
- A greater tendency for northwest flow, bringing dry and cold air masses behind each front.
However, when a strong high-pressure system forms over eastern Canada (known as a Greenland block or negative NAO), some La Niña winters can still produce major coastal storms, or nor’easters, that ride up the East Coast. These events can bring significant snow if cold air is well established.
2. Temperature Patterns
La Niña generally favors colder-than-average conditions in the northern U.S. and warmer-than-average conditions in the South.
For the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, the outcome depends heavily on latitude:
- Northern New England and interior New York: More consistently cold, with longer-lasting snow cover.
- Southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic: More variability, with frequent temperature swings.
Cold air often builds in Canada and occasionally drains southward behind frontal systems, but the milder Pacific influence can moderate temperatures between cold shots. The result is a winter that feels volatile rather than persistently frigid.
3. Snowfall Trends
Snowfall outcomes in La Niña winters can vary dramatically from year to year, but certain tendencies stand out:
- Interior Northeast: Often sees near- to above-average snowfall because cold air is more sustained and clippers or lake-effect events are common.
- Mid-Atlantic and coastal areas: Tend to have below-average snowfall, especially when the polar jet stream remains displaced too far north for sustained cold air. However, all it takes is one or two major nor’easters to flip those totals upward.
In weaker La Niña years, when blocking patterns are more likely, snowstorms can still be significant along the I-95 corridor. Strong La Niña events, by contrast, usually suppress snow totals in that zone.
4. Precipitation Patterns
Overall precipitation in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during La Niña tends to be near or slightly below average, but with uneven distribution:
- The Ohio Valley and Great Lakes often get wetter conditions.
- The Mid-Atlantic can experience longer dry spells punctuated by quick bursts of rain or snow.
- Coastal areas occasionally deal with heavy rain events when a storm hugs the coastline rather than moving offshore.
Because La Niña favors a more variable jet stream, some winters feature extended quiet periods followed by a sudden increase in storminess during late winter or early spring.
5. Severe Weather and Wind Events
While winter is the primary focus, La Niña’s influence extends into spring, when the atmosphere becomes more unstable.
In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic:
- Stronger temperature contrasts between lingering cold air to the north and warming southern air can fuel windy systems and strong cold fronts.
- The region may see an increase in early-season severe weather outbreaks during March and April, especially if warm, humid air surges north ahead of a front.
6. Impacts Beyond Winter
La Niña patterns can leave lingering effects that shape the following spring and summer:
- Drier springs in the Mid-Atlantic can increase the risk of brush fires or delay agricultural planting.
- Cooler ocean waters along the East Coast may persist into early summer, slightly reducing coastal humidity early in the season.
- In some years, La Niña contributes to active Atlantic hurricane seasons, because it reduces wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are therefore at a slightly higher risk for tropical remnants or landfalling systems later in the year.
7. Historical Context
Several memorable winters for the region occurred during La Niña years:
- 2010–11: A moderate La Niña winter that brought multiple major snowstorms to the Northeast, including record-breaking totals in New York City.
- 2016–17: Another La Niña year that featured wild temperature swings, with an unusually warm February followed by a major March snowstorm.
- 2021–22: A strong La Niña year with cold, dry conditions in the northern tier and a sharp north-south snow gradient.
These examples highlight that no two La Niña winters are identical, but they often share a pattern of cold bursts, shifting storm tracks, and inconsistent snowfall for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
UPPER AIR PATTERNS THAT IMPACT WEATHER AT THE SURFACE:
When forecasting mid-range…I’m talking 7 to 10 days in advance, we really look at what I call the “alphabet soup” of indices called Teleconnections.
Teleconnections are large-scale patterns in the atmosphere that link weather and climate across distant regions of the globe. They describe how conditions in one part of the world, like the tropical Pacific Ocean, can influence weather thousands of miles away through shifts in air pressure, jet stream position, and storm tracks.
In the Mid-Atlantic United States, a weak La Niña tends to create subtle but important teleconnection effects. The Pacific cooling slightly strengthens the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and alters the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These shifts often lead to:
- A slightly northward-displaced jet stream, which brings more variability in temperature and fewer major coastal storms.
- Periodic cold outbreaks when the AO or NAO turns negative, allowing Arctic air to spill south.
- Dry stretches punctuated by quick-moving clipper systems rather than prolonged nor’easters.
Because the La Niña is weak, these influences are less consistent, meaning the Mid-Atlantic often experiences a highly changeable winter—not dominated by cold or warmth, but marked by swings driven by how those teleconnections evolve week to week.
The current positioning of cooler water in the Gulf of Alaska is a signal that promotes lower atmospheric pressure and a dip in the jetstream which locks in cooler and active weather into the Pacifc Northwest. Typcially when the jet drops in one part of the country, it rises in the other meaning high pressure or a ridge in the east.
HOWEVER, look at this. See all the red/orange shades in the north Atlantic? That could, in theory, counteract the impact of the cool pool in the NW and create a large area of high pressure over Greenland…called the “Greenland Block” which forces colder air into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. We will likely see the Greenland block set up a few times over the course of the season.
THE POLAR VORTEX
This is the wildcard. Everything I outlined becomes irrelevant and gets overridden if the Polar Vortex weakens…then you end up with a major blast of cold in the lower 48. We saw exactly that happen two times last year.
The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air that sits high in the atmosphere over the Arctic. It acts like a spinning dome that keeps the frigid air trapped near the poles. The strength and stability of the polar vortex play a major role in determining winter weather patterns across the lower 48 states.
- Strong Phase: When the polar vortex is strong, it stays well-organized and tightly contained over the Arctic. This keeps cold air locked in the far north, leading to milder and more stable winters across much of the United States. The jet stream tends to flow fast and straight from west to east, preventing large Arctic outbreaks.
- Weak Phase: When the polar vortex weakens or becomes disrupted, it can split or wobble southward. This allows lobes of cold Arctic air to spill into the United States, causing frigid outbreaks and increased snow potential, especially across the northern and eastern states. The jet stream becomes wavier, which can lead to longer-lasting cold spells and active storm patterns.
In short, a strong polar vortex keeps the cold bottled up, while a weak one lets winter take over. There are some hints in long-term guidance that while the PV starts out strong, it will be chipped at by mid-Winter. Certainly not set in stone but the chance is always on the table.
WHAT KIND OF STORMS WE SEE IN THE WINTER:
During winter in the Mid-Atlantic, several types of storm systems can affect the region, each bringing different impacts depending on the larger weather pattern and temperature setup. The main types are Alberta Clippers, Miller A, and Miller B coastal storms.
Alberta Clippers are fast-moving systems that originate in western Canada. They typically track southeast across the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, bringing light snow, gusty winds, and sharp temperature drops. Because they move quickly and have limited moisture, they rarely produce heavy snow except in upslope or lake-effect areas. Clippers are common during La Niña winters, especially weak ones, when the jet stream is more active and storm energy tends to stay farther north.
Miller A storms form in the Gulf of Mexico or off the Southeast coast and move northeast along the coastline. They can rapidly intensify, drawing in deep Atlantic moisture. When cold air is in place, they can bring major nor’easters with heavy snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding. Their severity depends on how close they track to the coast—too close and it rains; too far offshore and snow totals drop inland.
Miller B storms begin as inland systems (often from the Ohio Valley) that transfer their energy to a new low developing along the coast. This process can create a secondary coastal low, which then moves northeast. Miller B storms often bring mixed precipitation—rain changing to snow as cold air rushes in—and can produce moderate to heavy snowfall inland if the coastal transfer happens at the right time.
In a weak La Niña year, the Mid-Atlantic tends to see more clippers and Miller B–type systems than classic Miller A nor’easters. The storm track often runs near or just north of the region, producing frequent small to medium events rather than blockbuster snowstorms, with variability depending on short-term temperature patterns and blocking setups over the North Atlantic.
EXPECTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN:
I think we see a great divide between north and south. The coldest air relative to normal will be in the Plains and northern tier of the country. Great Lakes will be cold. The south will be warm. Us here in South Jersey? Battle zone, as per usual. Wild swings back and forth.
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION PATTERN:
Dry in the south, wet in the north. Battle zone in the east. While there will be multiple storm chances, overall precip is probably at or slightly below normal.
EXPECTED SNOWFALL:
The blockbuster snows will be again, in the northern tier of the country. Looks like below normal along the coast but right around average for the interior parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
SOUTH JERSEY SNOWFALL FORECAST:
Here’s what you’ve been waiting for. Last year was very SHORE heavy with most of the storms favoring the most southern parts of our area. This year I expect a more “traditional” setup where folks to the NORTHWEST get much more than us…we will have plenty of those “marginal” events where a shift of 25-50 miles is the difference between a wintry mix and a good, plowable snow. Average at ACY is 16. I think that’s the high-end. Better chance of a good couple 6″+ events will be towards Philly points NW.
So that’s that. That’s my guess and I’m sticking to it. Again, this is for EDUCATIONAL purposes and fun. Do I expect this to play out 100%? Nope. Anyone who tells you they know exactly how a season will play out to a T is selling you a bill of goods. We can pick up on long-term patterns, sure. But individual events? Still only within 5 days reliably. Time will tell how this plays out. What are YOU looking forward to?
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