Hurricane season has been quiet for the last several weeks, but that is about to change.

We are watching a system moving into the Western Atlantic that could develop into a Tropical Storm by the middle to end of the week. Right now, The National Hurricane Center gives it a 40 percent chance of that happening in the next 3 to 5 days.

Why has the Atlantic been so quiet lately? The Saharan Dust has played a huge role in the tropics with literally no activity in the Atlantic. Saharan Dust comes from the Sahara Desert in North Africa and the winds can carry this dust as far west as the southern United States! It also impacts millions of people each year with asthma and allergies.

The Saharan dust is expected to slowly erode across portions of the Atlantic as we go later in the week. However, it will still be present, just not as widespread. As the system continues to move westward across the Atlantic Ocean, some intensification is likely. The big questions are 1) how much Saharan dust will be present by the end of the week, and 2) where will it go?

By late in the week, the GFS American model shows the system a few hundred miles north and east of the Winward and Leeward Islands. A huge Bermuda ridge of high pressure across the Central Atlantic will help to steer this system clockwise. At this time, model guidance suggests this system will weaken and fall apart.

There’s also another INTERESTING part to this forecast… A cold front will move across the Mid-Atlantic by the middle to end of this week and stall offshore. There are some hints of a low-pressure system developing along the front by Friday or Saturday. As of right now, the front will likely be far enough offshore and the steering winds would keep the low-pressure system offshore. It’s something to watch!

Remember, we are about one month away from the “peak” of Hurricane season. On average, it’s “typical” to see tropical activity begin to ramp up from Mid-August through October!

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