The overall idea hasn’t changed since this past weekend. We know it’s not going to be a nice weekend. It will be chilly and wet. NOT the kind of weather we want to deal with in early May. It’s ridiculous. I know…I’m right there with you. With that said, there ARE some minor changes I’m eying up that impact timing and impact at the shore. Let’s go over the quick details first, and then expand into a larger discussion:

SOCCER MOM W/5 KIDS SUMMARY

  • TIMING: Showers arrive Friday morning. Scattered at first, becoming steadier in the afternoon and evening. On and off rain through Saturday night.
  • WINDS: Sustained around 15-25mph. Mainland will be closer to 15, shore around 25. The GUSTS will be blowing strong. 45-55 possible up and down the shore, 30ish on the mainland.
  • RAIN: Feast of famine. Some model guidance continues to throw down isolated areas of 2-3″, the more likely outcome is 1-2″ over the duration of the event.
  • COASTAL FLOODING: With the on-shore flow kicking in as soon as today, we will see excess water pile up in the back bays. Yesterday I wasn’t very concerned, that remains the case today BUT I am going to recognize we could very well see minor tidal flooding up and down the shore LATE Saturday night. So, if you live in those areas that flood when someone sneezes, move your car.
  • TEMPERATURES: Chilly. No way around that. 50s all weekend.

Sooo yeah, like I said, the overall idea remains consistent, just some minor tweaks here and there…which is to be expected as we get closer to an event. It’s part of the forecast process. The point is, we are NOT going to have a nice weekend, unfortunately.

Alright let’s look at the start of it all. Originally it looked like ALL rain would hold off until later Friday afternoon. Now it appears as though the system is speeding up a little. This means we could throw some showers into the forecast by mid Friday morning. The heavy stuff still holds until the afternoon and evening hours. Heaviest is probably Friday night.

Here’s what radar could look like around 10AM (notice the rain moves in first to the western sections of our viewing area)

And what it looks like mid-afternoon:

We will see waves of rain continue on and off through late Saturday. It will probably not be straight wall of water from Friday morning to Saturday night but be on the lookout for PULSES of rain, if that makes sense. Technically, we need more rain. We are running with roughly a 1″ surplus for the YEAR/SEASON, but that’s not significant at all. We need a buffer to prevent us from dipping back into drought range.

Models are all over the place on totals…the EURO and GFS are very robust with some areas picking up over 2″. I think 1-2″ is a pretty solid call…but like with EVERY storm, there will absolutely be areas that are higher and lower. It all comes down to where those heaviest cells set up. That’s all. There’s no magic to it.

EURO:

GFS:

Winds will be an issue. Clearly. It won’t be howling every minute of the day at 40-50mph, but the gust potential is absolutely on the table. Here’s a snapshot of what things could look like Saturday afternoon:

Gusts on the mainland will be lower. 30-40mph possible. Decreasing the farther west you go.

Tidal flooding will need to be watched. You can see the updates in realtime, here: www.norcast.tv/tides

Some of the reporting sites look like we could see solid minor flooding LATE Saturday night. We will monitor. I would move my car to higher ground before bed if you’re one of those areas that typically floods.

Stay tuned for more updates!

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