Let me start by saying that this will NOT be a blockbuster snowstorm for South Jersey. Never was going to be. We’ve been consistently on the lighter side of the forecasts out there, even lighter than the NWS. We are starting to see adjustments DOWNWARD while we are not budging. I see no reason to.
I’m going to break down every part of this storm so you’re aware of what’s coming our way. Deal?
WINTER WEATHER ALERTS:
Parts of South Jersey were under a Winter Storm Watch yesterday and have been updated to a Winter Weather Advisory. This is customary. If the NWS believes an area would see 4-6″ of snow, 48 hours out they’ll issue a watch in anticiaption for a Warning. They re-evaluate 24 hours out and decide if they are gonna go that route or issue an advisory instead.
Yesterday I agreed with the watch ONLY because of the ice potential for Camden and Burlington County. I never saw 4-6″ of snow in those areas. Today they came back and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for those areas. I’d argue there should be a WARNING for ice around the Philly metro. But I don’t make the rules. Warning is in effect for NORTH Jersey and the New York Metro…I DO think up to 6″ of snow is possible up there.
Ice storm warnings are creeping across PA and likely make it into the Central part of the state.
SOCCER MOM w/5 KIDS SUMMARY:
-Storm arrives early to mid-day Friday.
-Cold enough for snow at the onset, flipping to mix/ice around dinner
-NOT a substantial snow maker for SNJ…IF it were to overperform, up to 3″ possible, but I’ve got a 1-3″ zone around the xway, with C-1″ south of there.
-0.10 to 0.20″ Ice possible around Philly
-Storm pulls out by Sat morning, leftover clouds with us.
TIMING:
First flakes likely fly to the north and west around 2pm. Storm gets cranked up between 5-7pm. Exits by 7am Saturday.
Looks like the heaviest of the precip is around the dinner hour and will last for 3-4 hours before lessening up.
SNOWFALL:
From just south of Trenton to Southern Gloucester County: 1-3″
South of the Expressway: C-1″
North of Trenton: 3-6″
ICE:
A glazing to upwards of 0.15″ of ice possible, closer to Philly. Totals will taper off the farther EAST of Philly you go. 20 miles either side of the city is where I see the impact zone.
Temperatures at the surface will be just below freezing but there’s gonna be a shallow layer of warm air that creeps in several thousand feet above our head that will melt the snow that starts out wayyyy at the top of the atmosphere…it will re-freeze before hitting the ground.
As the layer of warm air grows, it will reach closer to the surface and allow for plain old rain eventually…but with road temps below freezing, it turns into freezing rain as it freezes as it comes in contact with any surface.
ROAD TEMPERATURES:
Air temps should be held to the lower 30s through tomorrow afternoon. As clouds work in we will kinda “freeze” everything and then see the numbers DROP as the sun goes down. Ground temps get into the mid and upper 30s…but will fall off into the 20s by dinner. THAT’S the issue. Regardless of what kind of precip is falling out of the sky, it’s GOING TO FREEZE. Even if we flip over to plain old rain, it will freeze.
Moral of the story? If you don’t HAVE to be on the roads after 7pm tomorrow, stay home. Order chinese and watch some movies. Ice is dangerous. The biggest issues will be within a 20 mile radius of Philly…not that big of an impact to the SE towards the islands of Atlantic and Cape May co.
Don’t forget to follow us on Facebook, Instagram and TikTok @NorEasterNick and get our app! @NorCast Weather FREE in your app store!
