Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, but will these storms become severe? Will we see enough sunshine? That remains the question. The Storm Prediction Center has a SLIGHT RISK (Level 2 out of 5) for much of South Jersey. This means isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the area.
The HRRR model tries to develop thunderstorms as early as 3:00 PM across Eastern Pennsylvania and Central Jersey, however, we might be stuck with more cloud cover. Once again, the best dynamics appear to be a bit to the south.
Just because the best dynamics may be further south DOES NOT mean we won’t see any rain or thunderstorms…. I think thunderstorm chances across South Jersey are at least 60 or 70 percent as we go later into this afternoon and into this evening. Will these storms turn severe is the only question.
By late afternoon or early evening, the latest model guidance wants to develop a line of thunderstorms. Some storms may become severe and produce damaging wind gusts (60+ mph,) isolated large hail, and a very low chance of a tornado. Damaging wind gusts are the biggest threat with this event.
Locally heavy rainfall could produce isolated areas of flooding. Some areas could see 1 to locally 2 inches of rain, while locations just 10 minutes from you may see less than one-half inch.
Friday and going into the weekend is looking very nice with lower levels of humidity!