Welcome to April. Mother Nature doesn’t look to be foolin’ around tomorrow as we’ve got a pretty significant storm rolling through the region…Over the next few paragraphs I’ll go over all the info you need to know to get you prepped. First of course, let me offer you the:
SOCCER MOM w/5 KID SUMMARY
- Rain arrives overnight and will continue on and off through around lunch. Some embedded t-storms are possible, severe weather threat with those is lower.
- 1st round exits, as expected and we break out into sunshine. Temps rise to 70+ away from the beaches.
- How much sunshine we see will dictate what happens in the late afternoon / early evening with severe weather.
- Between 7 and 10pm we will be watching the west for a line of storms that will dry and develop…this is where the severe potential exists. Damaging winds in excess of 50mph is the main concern, an isolated tornado secondary.
RAIN
There doesn’t look to be a lot of rain. We aren’t talking flooding here. Maybe a half inch? I think that may be generous. We’ve got showers in the morning with some embedded t-storms and heavier areas of rain.
After this round clears the coast an hour or two after lunch, the sun comes out. IF the sun comes out immediately, I think we may be in trouble late day with strong storms. If the clouds linger, it helps the situation. Looking at a round of rough weather around the dinner hour. Most of the afternoon will be fine.
Cells could start out singular and then morph into more of a quick-moving squall line with damaging winds the primary concern.
WIND:
Regardless of storms, it will be windy through the day with gusts between 25-30mph even when it’s not raining. Above our heads the low level jet will be roaring at 80mph+. That does NOT mean we see 80mph winds at the surface. It’s energy that can be TAPPED INTO and 65-70% can be transported to the surface with an area of heavy rain. No heavy rain, no damaging wind. It’s as simple as that. Don’t look at the map below and freak. It’s just showing you what’s happening about 1 mile above our heads.
With that being said, I think the greatest potential for severe weather lies with wind. Right now the storm prediction center is placing the entire state under a 10% chance.
TORNADOES
The mid-west is getting HAMMERED by tornadoes today and that will continue through tonight. Most of the spin looks to ease up as the system pushes towards us but there’s a chance with enough daytime heating and the instability and lift from the approaching cold front, we could see a couple isolated tornadoes. NOT a repeat of what’s going on today, but something to keep an eye on for sure.
VERDICT:
I think since this is the first severe weather event of the season for our region the SPC is being extra cautious. I totally see the wind threat. I am not sold on the 5% chance of tornadoes. I think the threat is lower BUT we will go with the idea that one or two is possible through NJ and I’d like you to be aware of that possibility and not surprised if it does indeed happen. The oceanic influence should help us out.
Threat level for us for the storm as a whole it 3/5 when you take all things into consideration.
Don’t be scared, be weather aware and download my NORCAST WEATHER APP to be prepared. It is an app that does something no other does – alerts you of a spinning tornado BEFORE the NWS issues a warning which gives you extra time to get to safety.
