Rain & Strong Winds Likely Mothers Day Weekend

The first thing they teach you in Weather School 101 is this: Keep the weekend nice. The past two weekend’s were fine…right? No issues! ESPECIALLY this past. It was amazing. You’d think we could continue that trend and make out OK for this coming weekend. I mean, is that TOO hard to ask? Would it not be fitting for MOTHER Nature to give us good weather for MOTHERS day? Maybe I’m just thinking too much into it.

Here’s the issue. We’ve got a boundary that will be situated to our south, high pressure to the north and a developing coastal storm all coming together. Here’s a look at the upper air pattern at 500mb, which is 18k feet above our heads:

See the big ole L over the Mid-Atlantic? That’s the entity that will lock the clouds in and bring rain from late Friday into maybe early Sunday. The flow of air around low pressure is counter clockwise so winds will be coming in off the ocean. High pressure to the east makes matters worse.

It will take a while for this low to clear and for that reason I believe we are plagued with less-than-desirable conditions. It will be chilly, windy and wet at times. The first part of Friday should be OK. I’m looking at showers coming in mid to late afternoon and cranking up overnight.

Here’s what radar could look like late afternoon, early evening on Friday:

Rain gets cranked up overnight

And stays with us on and off in some fashion right through Sunday morning
If the EURO is correct, 1-2″ of rain is possible region-wide. GFS is a little less robust coming in around 1″. I think 3/4″ to 1 1/2″ is possible from Friday night to Sunday morning. We are around 1″ above normal for the season but will be good to add to that surplus. Never a bad thing…but bad timing for sure.
Rain isn’t the big concern here…it’s wind. We’ve gotten a few day break from those high gusts. Looks like they’ll be returning by Saturday. Gusts 35-45mph off of the ocean? Not pleasant. Stiff wind. Combine that with temps in the 50s and you get a miserable couple of days. Highest gusts will be seen at the shore, mainland gusts 25-35mph. At times those winds will be driving rain.
Looks like the wet weather stops by Sunday morning so it should be DRIER for Mom, but I’m not too sure I’d want to be outside in any way…gusty winds to over 30mph are still likely…as too the chilly temps. Looks like in-door plans will be a must.
Of course there is still time for things to change…but the forecast has been very consistent since this weekend. It’s not looking like a miracle will happen, unfortunately.

Beaches will be beat up by the increased wave action but since we are between moon phases, we should avoid any significant flooding issues however SOME minor flooding can’t be ruled out.

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