“Potential” is the keyword – Cloud cover is going to be the key to the forecast. If we remain on the cloudy side, then the severe weather potential will be low. However, if we see more breaks in the clouds, the severe weather threat will ramp up a bit with some thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail, and isolated tornadoes.
This is the updraft helicity from the HRRR model. This shows the direction or path of potential rotating thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather, including tornadoes. Notice that most of the lines remain SOUTH of South Jersey in Delmarva and Tidewater Virginia. This would be a GOOD thing for us, but not good news for Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula.
The HRRR and NAM model are “split” on the severe weather potential on Friday. The NAM model is more extreme and the NAM model can be too bullish at times. However, it’s important to note that either way you slice it, the tornado potential is NOT zero. That’s why we need to pay close attention to how much sunshine we see across South Jersey.
Regardless, at minimum, we will see at least a line of thunderstorms move across South Jersey between 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 p..m. Friday. IF we see enough sunshine Friday afternoon, we’ll have to watch for a few supercells to develop ahead of the main line of storms. These storms could produce isolated tornadoes.
It’s always best to be prepared for severe weather. Have a plan and take shelter when a warning is issued for your area. Have the NorEaster Nick NorCast Weather app downloaded on your phone. It will send you a notification when lightning is within 5 to 10 miles of your location.