10, 15, 20 years ago everything we are experiencing this season would just be called what it is…Winter. These snow storms happened on a regular basis…today? Not much anymore. However, we set up this pattern for you WEEKS ago as I’ve been talking about the upper air pattern coming together JUST right to allow for these east coast storms.
What’s coming our way this weekend isn’t history by NJ standards, but it will pack a punch with heavy snow, some wind and even ice. Oh yeah. I’ll get to that in a moment as I break down everything from start to finish so you’re away of the issues we will be facing.
SOCCER MOM W/5 KIDS SUMMARY:
-Saturday dry.
-Snow arrives late Sat night
-Heaviest comes Sunday morning/early PM
-Rain/snow line possible midday Sunday, how far west does it get? IDK yet.
-Several inches of snow BEFORE flip to sleet/freezing rain
-Generally 6″ as a baseline for most, I do think potential is higher…like 10″+, BUT I like to start realistically and adjust if I need to. I forecast the weather. I’m not God.
-Storm wraps by early Mon morning
THE SETUP
Low pressure will dip south out of the Rockies and will bring warm, moist air from the Gulf northward which will clash in a big way creating TONS of ice across the deep south into Virginia and yes, I think some ice is possible in NJ by Sunday afternoon.
TEMPERATURE PROFILE
This is a very rare situation for recent times in NJ where it will be snowing in the TEENS on Sunday morning allowing for a very fluffy snow. A “thumping” of snow likely between 3am and 11am then the rain/snow line will slowly advance northward as temps rise.
Now, here’s the catch…I think we DO get above 32° up and down the coast which allows, specially the SOUTH JERSEY islands, to flip to rain. Temps will likely stay UNDER 32° west of Hammonton, but we could still be looking at rain…why?
For that answer we need to look above our heads to about 5,000 feet, or a mile up. The 850mb layer of the atmosphere will see a shallow layer of warmer air work in. The numbers you see here are in celcius. Anything above 0° is above freezing. This will dictate where the rain/snow line goes. It could push into the Philly metro area. Snow falls through this shallow layer of warmth, melts and then re-freezes before it hits the ground because surface temps are still in the teens. This will allow for a layer of ice ontop of the soft, fluffy snow. As the storm pulls away temps from the top of the atmosphere to the surface will be consistently below freezing which will make everything freeze over.
Here’s a better way to visiualize what that looks like…
There will likely be a several hour period of sleet/freezing rain across South Jersey and that will help cut back on snow totals to an extent.
WARNINGS
More than half the country is being impacted by this storm. Multiple watches and warnings are posted throughout the nation. We are currently under a Winter Storm Watch but I’m betting that is upgraded to a warning for pretty much everyone. There *may* be an exception at the beaches of Atlantic and Cape May co as I don’t expect there to be an extreme amount of snow. It will honestly come down to amount of moisture and how quickly the flip happens.
IMPACT
This is a storm with FAR-reaching impacts. The biggest concern I see is ICE in parts of the deep south. Some guidance is suggesting upwards of an inch + of ice. Major to extreme impact in those locations. Looking like a moderate to major impact for some of OUR region, but we are much more accustom to winter weather than our friends in the south are.
I think for us here in South Jersey we are looking at HIGH impact with snow, MODERATE impact with wind and ice and LOW impact with flooding. This will not be a coastal flood producer, thankfully. Definitely a region-wide plowable snow.
THE TIMELINE
Saturday is dry, cold, windy, cloudy. But no snow. As we push into overnight Saturday the snow works in. There will be a period of 8-ish hours of heavy snow falling with temps in the teens so it will pile up quickly. By late morning or early afternoon we will start seeing the rain/snow line push north. How quickly that happens will have a BIG impact on snow totals. Last of the storm wraps overnight Sun into Mon.
Radar shoud look like this in the wee hours of the morning…notice those temps. Even if these numbers are over done on the cold side and you ADD 5 degrees to the mainland, we are still looking at a high-ratio snow event. Fluffy, DRY snow closer to Philly, more of a wet consistency for the shoreline.
Still trying to peg the exact timing of when that rain/snow line advances north. Is it possible that it DOESN’T happen? I suppose, but I fully expect, based on the position of the low, to make that transition over to a sleet and freezing rain. How far NW it gets is also something I’m trying to pinpoint.
The freezing rain/ice potential looks to be about a quarter inch. Combine that with some winds and all of a sudden you open the door for the potential for power outages. BIG ice expected through Virginia and North Carolina.
SNOW TOTALS
I’ve seen ALL the maps. I really have. I’ve looked at the NWS forecast…I’ve been tagged in TV station’s forecasts…but still, I’m sticking with the map I put out this morning. Why? Partially PTSD from seeing modeled blockbuster storms whither as we get closer but I don’t trust the rain/snow line. If for whatever reason that warm air creeps in sooner and you lose out on a few hours of heavy snow, that changes the entire calculus.
I don’t need to be first. I need to be right. This is my process. Start with the most realistic numbers and adjust up IF needed. We will circle back to this tomorrow morning and determine what needs to be done. If anything.
I will show you a couple other things just to give you an idea of what I look at…
Here’s something called the NBM. National Blend Model. It takes literally EVERYTHING…EVERY model and averages it out. It’s going GANGBUSTERS…but I think it’s overdone.
We also have something called the ensemble forecast. It’s when the GFS, or EURO, in this case, is ran over and over and over again with different variables taken into consideration. The AVERAGE is called the Ensemble MEAN. I think it’s actually impressive that that average is 8-9″. And that’s on a 10:1 ratio. Remember this snow will be falling as a 15 or 20:1 ratio.
So do I see the POTENTIAL for more snow than I have in my forecast? Yes. Of course I do. But that doesn’t equate to it being a reality. Tomorrow I’ll look at everything one more time and issue a final forecast based on the available data.
RATIOS
Finally, I wanna discuss the liquid to snow ratios. Traditionally, we usually have a 10:1 ratio around here due to marginal temps…highs around 32. Lots of liquid. It’s a heavy wet snow. 10:1 means for every inch of liquid that falls out of the sky, you get 10″ of snow. Well, when temps are COLDER, there is more air in each flake and those ratios get skewed higher. I think around Philly we are looking at a 15 or 20:1 ratio. So, in theory, if everything worked out perfectly and 1″ of liquid DID fall, we’d be looking at 15-20″. But I think there will be some limiting factors. Maybe 0.5″ of that would fall as sleet or rain… just another thing that needs to be taken into consideration.
Here’s a depiction of the difference:
IN SUMMARY
I think this IS a high-impact event especially since we haven’t had a storm like this in a while. A 4 out of 5. Historic? No. But enough snow to create issues? Yes. This storm should also come as NO surprise because we’ve been setting up this pattern very publicly for several weeks. We knew something like this was very possible and it’s possible we see more over the next couple weeks.
Stay safe and if you don’t need to be traveling Sunday, stay home!
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