A slow-moving front and developing low-pressure system along the coast will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall through Wednesday. Models are all over the place in regards to rain amounts, however, there is the potential for some locations across South Jersey to see amounts 2 to 3+ inches.
The period to watch for the heaviest rainfall may come in two waves – Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, and late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Heavy rain is NOT good during a drought! It cannot soak into the ground and runs off, which means flooding in poor drainage and low-lying areas, and overflowing creeks and streams.
For this reason, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted all of New Jersey in a SLIGHT RISK for excessive rainfall, meaning a “scattered” threat of flash flooding. It will not be widespread, but some locations that do see several inches of rainfall will see flooding.
Models are SPLIT north vs. south on who sees the heaviest rain. The GFS (American) and European models are night and day with these solutions. The European model shows a heavy rain and flooding threat across South Jersey, whereas the GFS (American) model is much further north with rainfall amounts exceeding 5 inches!
GFS (American) Model:
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