Heavy Rain, Strong Winds & Coastal Flooding Set for Saturday

Here we are at the 11th hour before the storm moves in and impacts us for about 36 hours… no big changes in thinking or in the overall forecast. It’s gonna be a nasty couple days and there’s nothing we can do about that. I’m going to walk you through exactly what we can expect on multiple levels so you are as prepared as possible and not caught off guard in any way.

SOCCER MOM W/5 KIDS SUMMARY:

  • Rain Starts Tonight
  • Heaviest 4a-11a
  • Widespread 1 to 3″ likely with pockets of 4-5″ possible
  • Winds will be NE gusting to 50mph+ along the shore, 40s mainland
  • MODERATE Tidal flooding, meaning 8 to 12″ of water in the streets 3pm-6pm around the backbays
  • There may be a bit of a lull or dry slotting develop in the afternoon
  • Unsettled with leftover showers and wind for at least the first half of sunday
  • Flight delays, power outages possible

RAINFALL:

I haven’t changed my thinking on this variable. I see a widespread 1 to 3″ with areas closer to the shore that could see 4,5,6″ etc…just comes down to where those heaviest bands set up. Something like this can be very inconsistent where one down gets 2″ and the next one over gets 5″. Will be on the lookout for “training” of course.

WIND:

Again, no changes with this either. Fully expect gusts from LBI to Cape May 50-55mph…sustained around 25-30mph. The farther inland you go, the less wind there will be. Still thinking gusts 40mph-ish even on the mainland. Winds will be NORTHEAST for a good part of Saturday, shifting SOUTHEAST later in the day. We currently have a HIGH WIND WARNING in effect for all day tomorrow. Tie down those loose items!

COASTAL FLOODING:

Numbers have come down SLIGHTLY. Storm surge model is now going with 2.25′ of surge instead of 2.5-3′. Doesn’t matter to me though. Like to see it, but I want everyone prepared for moderate. As I always say, when it comes to flooding, I rather predict a little more and hope for less so no one is caught off guard.

TORNADO THREAT:

I think the chances are small…but we ARE going to be on the “dirty” side of this system so I wouldn’t be shocked if there was a random spin-up or two. Late morning then again late afternoon. Just be weather aware, that’s all I ask!

FINAL COMMENTS:

Is this going to be the worst storm we’ve ever had? Nope. Absolutely not. Will it be impactful? Yes. The timing alone stinks. There will be heavy rain, there will be high winds and there will be water in the streets. It’s a typical nor’easter situation. First one of the season always stings a little bit. Be safe and use common sense! Storm wraps up on Sunday but we still keep things unsettled with scattered showers. I’m betting the Phillies don’t play.

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2 Responses

  1. Hey Nick. This is Christopher South from the CMC Herald newspaper. How did the storm play out over the weekend? The Cape May County OEM downplayed the entire thing as no more than normal. They did say this system is stalled due to a high-pressure system, and I’d like to hear more about that. 609-886-8600 x-128.

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