It’s early August and we ALREADY have predictions for the winter. It’s still summer and we are 49 days away from the first day of Autumn!
For the 2022-23 winter, the Farmers’ Almanac is calling for ‘significant shivers, slushy, icy, snowy.’
How accurate is the Farmer’s Almanac? Well, if you read their press releases and media kits, they claim 80 percent. However, there has never been any proof to back up their claims because they use a ‘secret formula.’ You can also compare all of their outlooks versus what actually happened each winter. Honestly, it’s a gamble.
Although El Niño and La Niña CAN give us signs of what is to come, there are other factors that we don’t know until sometimes a week or two in advance. You cannot predict if the Atlantic or Pacific Osscilliations are going to be in a negative or positive phase this far out. Yes, Although El Niño or La Niña helps to drive the pattern long-term, however, no two winters are alike.
The latest IRI/CPC models suggest a weak La Niña is on the table for the 2022-23 winter. What does that mean? We have seen decent snowfalls with La Niña’s, but there’s also a lack of a subtropical jetstream, so if you are looking for a big storm to form in the Gulf of Mexico and move up the East Coast, then La Niña’s are uncommon for that to happen. During most La Niña’s, a lot of our storms come from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and a new low will form off the Mid-Atlantic coast, but there tend to be a lot of “mixing” precipitation type issues.
Let’s be honest. Winter predictions this far out are useless. It’s rare that we have entire winters that are shivering, icy, or snowy. We often get “true winter” in two or three weeks and the rest of the winter can be dry and sometimes downright warm.
To be brutally honest, even the winter outlooks issued in November can also be a crapshoot. Sure, it can give you an idea of what might happen, but it’s not 100 percent carved in stone, and no winter outlook will be perfect. Furthermore, if ANYONE tells you in November that there will be a blizzard around the third week in February (and if they are correct,) then they must be physic.
You honestly have a greater chance of winning money at a casino than a winter outlook verifying 80, 90, or 100 percent of the time.