Coastal storm arrives late tomorrow night and will be impactful. No big changes in the overall thinking but some tweaks are certainly in order – and expected. Let’s go over them.
Still looking at rain moving in sometime late Friday night / Saturday early morning. Scattered at first, heavier as we push into the daybreak hours on Saturday. Still looking at a 5-6 hour window of the worst weather, then a little lull for the afternoon, followed by another round of rain later Saturday.
Sunday looks ehhh. Morning will be unsettled with shower chances. Those chances will extend into the first part of the day. We should get better by the afternoon and evening. We keep the wind around.
Since the storm will be tracking farther WEST than anticipated by me yesterday, I’m adjusting rainfall expectations. I still think a widespread 1-3″ is likely, but we will add the chance for some 3-5″ readings at the shore and even through portions of interior SNJ. Rain could now accumulate pretty good NW of Philly as well.
Most intense rain is Saturday morning with scattered showers still around through the day, then maybe more organized for the evening into Sunday morning.
Any way you slice it, we are looking at windy weather. East to Northeast. I’m thinking sustained, realistically through the event 20-25, gusts to 45-55 at the shore, 15-20, gusts 30-40 on the mainland. Obviously the farther WEST you go, the less wind you’ll encounter. Even when it’s not raining, it will be windy. This is because of a pressure gradient setting up thanks to high to the north and approaching low from the south. Position of the low doesn’t matter too much, may change winds around by 5-10mph, that’s about all.
Winds will be howling through the day, roughly 24 hours of wind in all.
Earlier in the week it appeared like flooding would be limited to minor…now, given the change in expected track, we are looking at more of a solid moderate type event. I’m expecting about 2.5-3′ of storm surge which will result in 8-12″ at the minimum of water in the streets, especially the low laying areas.
The storm looks to track more west. This opens us up to being on the “dirty” side of the storm which means natual rotation is possible in the cells wrapping around the center of the storm…an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out Sat morning, then Sat night.
Overall I think on a scale of 1-5, my concern level with this storm is a 3. Nothing we haven’t seen many, many times in the past. Make sure you’ve got some in-door plans on deck and enjoy some needed rain at the shore.