If you are a snow lover, you’ve been watching the forecast like a hawk…and maybe with some disappointment with the warmth seen in December. I get it. But it’s nothing we didn’t expect! I think we are right on track with the winter outlook I put out there back in late October, actually.
El Nino winters are often backloaded with a nice, cold & stormy February into March. January is usually a month in transition. I see that playing out right before our eyes. December closes out above normal, we saw that coming from a mile away…but could a change be just over the hump? I think so!
There are a couple things I’m looking at intently trying to figure out how the pieces of the puzzle all come together.
First and foremost we have to talk about the upper air pattern. The entire lower 48 has been just inundated with mild air off the Pacific ocean. The jet was so strong at one point planes were going super sonic. It’s hard to shut that off. The Eastern Pacific Oscillation has been largely in its POSITIVE phase which establishes an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and cuts off any cold air supply.
Luckily, things look to change up heading towards 2024. We should be switching back into a NEGATIVE phase which would replace the low with a high and pump the jet stream north into NW Canada and in turn drive colder air into the eastern third of the country.
Lots of squigly lines on this chart but all you have to really look at is that solid black line in the middle. This is the neutral line. When the lines (individual forecasts) dip below that, we are in business…and this is what could be seen as a result:
There are several other keys lining up the right way such as the Pacific North American pattern going positive and the North Atlantic Oscillation going negative. The players look to be on the field…but will they perform? That’s the question.
Another huge component to all of this is of course El Nino. We started out with a strong EAST-BASED El Nino but we are starting to see hints of it moving farther to the west. Cooling in the eastern region off the coast of Central and South America is a GOOD sign. A modoki el nino with the warmest water in the central pacific would help us out greatly.
The issue for me is this: Once the pattern change comes, how LONG will it hold? If recent history has shown anything it’s that these things don’t last long. A week or two? Then we reload. Getting snow this season is gonna be a thread the needle situation. I see us doing it a couple times though. Doesn’t mean it will happen with THIS change. Things just look…better.
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