Happy Friday! More of the same today… very similar to what we saw yesterday. Temperatures start off in the 50s and we end up in the middle to upper 60s. Some sun is possible, but clouds ultimately win out. Windy, mostly dry. Some showers may try and creep in later in the day along the coast.
OVERNIGHT
Temps drop into the 50s tonight. Windy and wild. A few showers could work in along the coast.
LOOKING AHEAD
With the storm taking a more westerly track, we’re looking at rain. Organized rain is possible by Saturday afternoon and it continues on and off through Sunday. Just a raw, unsettled, nasty weekend with flooding. Things get better by Monday.
Here’s what we’re dealing with.
This will be a sub-tropical nor’easter. Right now it’s gaining energy from the warm Gulf Stream, where sea surface temps are in the lower 80s. A warm core could take over for a bit before the transition to extratropical (getting its energy from the jet stream above) takes place. Once that transition happens by Saturday, the storm gets bigger.
High pressure to the north will BLOCK the storm from moving in a hurry, so it’s going to stall out and meander for a few days… all the while bringing us impacts. Looks like Southern New England takes the brunt of it all.
TIMING: Organized rain moves in Saturday afternoon and sticks around on and off through Sunday. The storm could still LINGER offshore into MONDAY before it fully fades away… or a weakness in the ridge to the north develops and lets it push off to the northeast.
FLOODING: We’re looking at AT LEAST six more tides where we flood. Solid minor for everyone, getting into mid-level moderate for others. The evening high tide cycle likely gets into moderate for many communities. I’d pay very close attention if you’re along the Barnegat Bay, especially Tuckerton, Little Egg, Mystic Islands, etc…
Our saving grace, I believe, is the storm actually tracking a little closer to us. There’s a trade-off. We get more wind and rain, but winds shift out of the NORTH and then NORTHWEST and push water OUT of the back bays. That saves most of us from major flooding.
If you’re in places like Bivalve, a northeast wind in a situation like this is much better than, say, an east or southeast. Water gets pushed AWAY from you. But on the other side of the Bay, in places like Rehoboth, you’ve got elevated tides.
RAIN: Definitely trending WETTER. A couple days ago this didn’t look that significant. If the EURO and a couple of the other models are right, we could see 1 to 3 inches of rain throughout NJ, less as you head toward Philly. Heaviest would be later Saturday into early Sunday.
WIND: East-northeast gusts to 50 to 55 mph are possible along the immediate coastline through the weekend. 30 to 40 mph gusts up to 20 miles west of the Parkway, then 20 to 30 mph west of there. Winds shift out of the NORTH later Saturday.
BEACH EROSION: This is a biggy. Already several FEET of sand gone in Ocean City, and that’s a common theme up and down the coast. Six more high tide cycles will chew into the beaches even more.
INTENSITY: Some of our mesoscale (short-range) modeling has the central pressure dropping to sub-970 mb. That is INTENSE. We aren’t quite within range yet for more accuracy, but it’s worth noting. The EURO has pressure down to sub-990 mb… and I think that makes sense. The ensemble MEAN (average) is 998 mb, which is pretty decent for a storm this time of year. It means there are members that are VERY strong to get it to that point.
OVERALL IMPACT: This is certainly NOT a Sandy or a Jonas, but it will be impactful for our shore points. We aren’t looking at island-wide flooding, but there could be a foot of water in the streets in the lowest lying areas around the back bays. It’s always best to prepare for MORE and hope for LESS. Never hurts to be prepared. Move your cars to higher ground too. I’d say it’s a 6 or 7 out of 10, with 10 being the high-end destructive storm like Jonas.
Don’t panic or worry. Stay weather aware and we’ll keep you in the know.
