Happy Tuesday!

Spring is doing its thing this week, and it’s doing it in layers. Today looks like the calm before the storm, literally, as a warm and mostly pleasant day gives way to a building cloud deck and a frontal system that’ll make its presence known by Wednesday night. Enjoy the mild air while it lasts, because a cold front is on its way and it’s bringing some real weather with it.

Today

The nicest day of the stretch, so take it. Skies start out mostly clear and gradually fill in through the afternoon as clouds increase ahead of the approaching system. The high climbs to near 68°F, which is a solid 10 to 15 degrees warmer than where we’ve been sitting lately. Winds are calm through the morning, then shift to the southeast around 5 mph by afternoon. No rain today, just a slow thickening of the cloud deck as the day goes on.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy skies settle in overnight as the front continues to approach. The low drops to around 48°F, which is comfortable but noticeably warmer than recent nights. Southeast winds around 5 mph ease to calm by late night. No precipitation expected, but the clouds will be thick enough that you won’t see many stars.

Wednesday

Wednesday starts cloudy and stays that way. The first chance for showers holds off until after 2pm, with a 50% precipitation chance in the afternoon and less than a tenth of an inch possible before dark. Southeast winds pick up to 5 to 10 mph through the afternoon. The high reaches near 66°F, so it’s still mild, but the vibe shifts. The real action comes after sunset, when the front pushes through and rain becomes likely to certain overnight, with thunderstorms possible. Wednesday night carries a 100% precipitation chance with rainfall totals between a half and three quarters of an inch expected.

The Weather Prediction Center is tracking a cold front that’ll push toward the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing showers and the chance for thunderstorms to our area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Allegheny Plateau through the Mid-Atlantic, a zone that includes the tri-state region, in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. The primary hazards if storms can get organized are damaging wind gusts and the possibility of some hail, though uncertainty remains about how much the atmosphere can destabilize given the expected cloud cover and early rainfall.

Later on

• Thursday clears out quickly, with showers likely only before 8am (60% chance) and less than a tenth of an inch, then partly sunny skies and a high near 62°F.
• Thursday night drops to around 42°F under mostly clear skies as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front.
• Friday looks great, sunny with a high near 63°F and no precipitation in the picture.
• Saturday brings a slight chance of showers back (30%), with a cooler high near 59°F and partly sunny skies.
• The weekend into early next week trends back toward sunshine, with highs climbing from the low 60s Sunday back toward 69°F by Monday