Happy Monday!

We’ve got some storms on the way for this afternoon…let’s get into the details:

TIMING:
Some storms are possible early this morning, but should be mainly non-severe. 12pm-3pm is the first window. Could get some torrential downpours and strong winds. 7-10pm is when the squall line is modeled to work through, that’s where our greatest risk for damaging winds will be.

WIND:
The western most parts of South Jersey are in a Level 4 of 5 threat zone…meaning significant wind damage is possible. Extreme down in DC / Washington. The jet above our heads will be ROARING. IF and ONLY IF these storms tap into that energy, there could be some 60-70mph straight line winds later in the day. IF that connection is NOT made, it will just be an average windy day with gusts 40-50mph max. That connection is what really matters.

TORNADO:
I think MOST of our area doesn’t have a whole lot to worry about, but one or two super cells CLOSE to South Jersey are possible. Weather doesn’t follow lines on a man-made map so I’m not ruling out something coming into SNJ through the afternoon, or along that squall line. The threat of tornadoes will INCREASE the farther SOUTH AND WEST you go.

RAIN:
Could see a quick 1-2″+ out of some of these cells depending on the speed. Isolated flash flooding is possible.

OVERALL CONCERN LEVEL:
For MOST of South Jersey a 5 out of 10…western sections of the state could creep into the 6 out of 10 range with 7 or 8 out of 10 over Maryland and VA.