SOCCER MOM w/5 KIDS SUMMARY:
– Storm is set to arrive early this morning but really crank up midday to late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
– We will likely lose some accumulations at the onset due to warm air and the fact that ratios will be very low. 8:1 to 10:1
– It’s gonna take a little while for the storm to intensify to the point of tapping into that cold air aloft and bring it down to the surface.
– Winds will pick up through the evening. ENE sustained 20-25mph and gusts 50mph+ along the coast.
– Snowfall rates could be 1-2″ per hour at the peak.
– Storm wraps up by lunch on Monday
– Temps will spike into the 40s by mid week so the snow will melt rather quickly.
THE SETUP:
This will likely be the strongest storm we’ve seen in a long time. Low pressure emerges off the Virginia coast on Sunday afternoon. It is projected to deepen rapidly. It goes from 1006mb to sub 980mb in less than 18 hours which is wild. THIS is where I’m a bit skeptical though. The water in the area it’s modeled to strengthen quickly isn’t exactly bath water…it’s in the 40s. If it was over the Gulf Stream, then I’d say sure!
If the models miss the mark on the rapid intensification, then the whole calculus changes. I believe there will be a few hours of mix / rain at the onset. Now, let’s say for sake of argument that the storm DOES begin to intensify as modeled. You’re also dealing with a storm that is starting as rain and will have a rapid and sudden change to snow sometime early to mid afternoon.
You’ll wake up to rain and think “oh boy, they were wrong again”, but it’s all part of the process. As the low deepens, the bands of rain will intensify. Once that happens, the rain falls at such a fast clip that the storm is able to pull down cold air from way above our heads.
The center of low pressure looks to be a little over 100 miles from our coast. The isobars, equal lines of pressure, will come very close together and bring very strong winds. Gusts over 50mph possible. The peak will be overnight and it will start wrapping sometime around lunch on Monday.
This is what radar will look like around lunch on Sunday. Notice the rain. Notice the yellow and orange and red. This is indicative of a deepening low.
This is what radar should look like during the peak of the storm. Temps come down into the upper 20s. Snow is rapidly accumulating at this point. Couldn’t be shocked to see some thunder and lightning out of this system.
TIMING:
It will start as rain for EVERYONE. Late morning or early afternoon we see the flip to mix then snow. Storm wraps around noon-ish Monday. Worst of it arrives overnight into Monday morning.
WIND:
We’ve got gusts 40-50mph pretty much standard at the beaches. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see some 60mph gusts to the east of the Parkway…35-45 mph on the mainland. Winds will be ENE to NE to N to NW. Worst will come after 6pm. Winds will be whaling overnight. Remaining elevated through Monday.
STORM THREATS:
Snow – High. Baseline of 6-10″ for most of the state with over a foot expected at the coast. Heavy/Wet snow. It will weigh down branches and power lines. Power outages are a legitimate concern.
Wind – High. Gusts to 50mph+ likely at the peak.
ICE – Low. NOT a repeat of the storm a few weeks back. No hours of freezing rain.
Flooding – Moderate. Solid moderate / borderline major coastal flooding is possible late Sunday night. EXACT wind direction matters greatly though. If it’s more NE and ENE, then the back bays will be inundated. If we get a last minute shift to north or northwest, then the worst flooding will be avoided. I will ALWAYS err on the side of caution when it comes to flooding.
ACCUMULATION:
Baseline 6 to 10″ expected across the state. North Jersey to South Jersey. The farther EAST you go, the more you’ll see. I think there’s reason to believe that there could be a jackpot of 18-24″ somewhere in Monmouth and Ocean counties.
