Well, we are now under 24 hours out from our high-impact Winter storm. I’ve reviewed ALL the data and have come to the determination that no changes are needed, but I DO need to emphasize the ice threat as that is increasing, especially through interior South and Central Jersey. Could see upwards of 1/2″ of ice by late Sunday afternoon.
SOCCER MOM W/5 KIDS SUMMARY:
-Snow starts LATE tonight. Midnight-ish through South Jersey, around 2am for Central, 3am for North.
-Starts light at first, then banding works in late morning.
-Period of rapid accumulations for 8 hours, generally 3a-11a for most of the state, ’til 3pm-ish for NWNJ.
-Flip to freezing rain and sleet south of Trenton after lunch
-A several hour period of ice is possible
-Power outage concerns tick up as winds kick in late day. Gusts over 30mph combined with ice is no good
-Storm wraps totally by Sunday evening with some leftover wrap around possible Monday morning.
WINTER STORM WARNING:
The criteria is 6″+. I think most get there EXCEPT South Jersey beaches. I’m sticking with 3-6″ in those spots as warmer air works in quicker. That could extend northward a little bit if the low ends up closer to the coast.
Best chance of 12″+ is west of Philly and then into NWNJ
QUICK NOTES:
FROM START TO FINISH:
Everyone starts as snow overnight…several hours of snow through the morning, then we see a shutoff of accumulating snow around 1pm south of Trenton. Changeover to Ice then likely.
Here’s what radar should look like at various times…note the temps. IN THE TEENS and TWENTIES! This means a higher ratio, fluffy snow at first.
BIG ICE CONCERNS:
With a warm layer of air creeping in above our heads, the snow melts and then re-freezes before impact with the ground. This will create a several hour period of accumulating ice. This could be upwards of 1/2″. Power outages become a real issue through interior South Jersey, especially as winds pick up mid to late day.
SNOWFALL TOTALS:
I disagree with the NWS. Even given the high ratio snow, their original call as recently as yesterday of widespread 12-18″ is overdone. No way that happens south of Trenton. Those numbers will come down, here’s what looks pretty realistic for me…Again, best chance of a foot + other side of Philly and NWNJ. By the way this is just a MODEL…the second image is our actual, human snowfall forecast.
REGION BY REGION:
Here are some probability maps I put together from the Philly Metro to the Shore.
GOING FORWARD:
Very cold week in store so that means this snow is gonna fall and stick around for a while. Next 10 days looks to be below 32. That will be an issue for sure.
IN SUMMARY:
On a scale of 1-5, this storm will be a solid 4. Not historic, but impactful. Baseline 6″ of snow. Plowable event. More NW. Ice could be a big deal.
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