Happy Saturday! We wake up to some areas of rain, maybe some embedded t-storms here and there. This will be the case on and off through the morning but it should clear just after lunch. Sunshine for the afternoon with temps rising into the 60s, maybe 70 for some?

How quickly that process happens will determine through the late afternoon and evening. The more sun we see, the better the chance for strong thunderstorms.

WIND:

Regardless of storms, it will be windy through the day with gusts between 25-30mph even when it’s not raining. Above our heads the low level jet will be roaring at 80mph+. That does NOT mean we see 80mph winds at the surface. It’s energy that can be TAPPED INTO and 65-70% can be transported to the surface with an area of heavy rain. No heavy rain, no damaging wind. It’s as simple as that. Don’t look at the map below and freak. It’s just showing you what’s happening about 1 mile above our heads.

TORNADOES

The mid-west is getting HAMMERED by tornadoes yesterday. Most of the spin looks to ease up as the system pushes towards us but there’s a chance with enough daytime heating and the instability and lift from the approaching cold front, we could see a couple isolated tornadoes. NOT a repeat of what’s going on today, but something to keep an eye on for sure.

VERDICT:

I think since this is the first severe weather event of the season for our region the SPC is being extra cautious. I totally see the wind threat. I am not sold on the 5% chance of tornadoes. I think the threat is lower BUT we will go with the idea that one or two is possible through NJ and I’d like you to be aware of that possibility and not surprised if it does indeed happen. The oceanic influence should help us out.

Threat level for us for the storm as a whole it 3/5 when you take all things into consideration.